Signs of Sugar Supply Situation Getting Complicated Before Festive Demand
03-Jul-2025 07:15 PM
New Delhi. During the four-month period from August to November 2025, the sugar industry is expected to have around 90 lakh tonnes of sugar available for sale in the domestic market, raising concerns about a potentially complex situation between supply and demand. One major reason is the onset of the festive season in August, during which sugar consumption typically rises sharply.
Both the domestic industry and the government are hoping for an early start to the sugarcane crushing and sugar production season this year. If production begins early, the supply and availability of sugar may remain stable.
However, any delay or disruption—especially due to unpredictable monsoon rains—could trigger a supply crunch and lead to price increases.
In the same August–November period of 2024, the government had allowed domestic sales of 93 lakh tonnes of sugar, and the stock levels remained comfortable due to a previous closing stock of around 80 lakh tonnes.
Despite an 18 percent drop in production to 261 lakh tonnes in the 2024–25 season, availability has remained manageable so far.
However, by the end of the 2024–25 marketing season on 30 September 2025, the closing stock with the industry is projected to fall to around 47 lakh tonnes.
If sugar production in October and November 2025 fails to meet expectations, supply may tighten, leading to a likely price increase. To maintain stability, production of at least 30–35 lakh tonnes during these two months is considered essential.
In October–November 2024, the country had produced 27.90 lakh tonnes of sugar. This year, an early start to cane crushing could improve output in the same period.
On 30 June 2025, the sugar stock with the industry stood at around 112 lakh tonnes. With a domestic sales quota of 22 lakh tonnes fixed for July, the projected stock as of 31 July is expected to be around 90 lakh tonnes.
From October 2024 to July 2025, the government allocated a total domestic sales quota of 229.50 lakh tonnes, which was 6 percent lower than the previous year.