Stagnation in the Southwest Monsoon - Activity will be less in June and more in July

04-Jun-2025 04:39 PM

Thiruvananthapuram. After an energetic start, the Southwest Monsoon has now slowed down and its intensity and movement have significantly reduced. It has settled along a fixed track that includes Mumbai, Ahilyanagar, Adilabad, Bhawanipatna, Puri, Sand Head Island, and Balur Ghat. The European Weather Forecasting Center has predicted that the monsoon may become fully active again during the first two weeks of July. July is typically the rainiest month of the monsoon season, which runs from June to September.

According to the Weather Forecasting Center, activity in the Bay of Bengal may increase in the last week of June due to a possible circulation developing near the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts. Meanwhile, the Indian Meteorological Department has indicated that the monsoon might regain momentum and advance further during June, supported by an upcoming western disturbance. This disturbance could stretch from southwestern Uttar Pradesh through Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha to coastal Andhra Pradesh. It is expected to evolve into a monsoon-friendly cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal, bringing easterly winds and rain to eastern India. This system could extend its influence to central and southern peninsular India.

As a result, rainfall may occur in parts of Kerala, Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, and eastern Madhya Pradesh. However, from June 16 to 23, there may be a lull in rainfall over southern India. During this period, scattered showers are expected in the northwestern and adjoining central regions of the country, including Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh, Uttar Pradesh, and western Madhya Pradesh.