Sugar prices may improve during the festive season

04-Jul-2025 11:48 AM

New Delhi. The indigenous sugar industry had a large stock of over 79 lakh tonnes of sugar as of 30 September 2024, which is expected to fall to around 47 lakh tonnes by the end of the current marketing season on 30 September 2025.

For October, a free sale quota of 23–24 lakh tonnes may be issued for the domestic market, leaving the industry with just enough stock for November sales. This means the old stock of sugar could be nearly exhausted by the end of November.

However, the new marketing season for sugarcane crushing and sugar production will begin in October. Typically, this process gains momentum only after mid-October, with production rising significantly from November.

Last year, 17.90 lakh tonnes of sugar were produced during October–November, and leftover stock from the previous year helped prevent any supply issues.

This year, the situation could be more challenging, as mills may run low on stock. Therefore, domestic production of at least 30–35 lakh tonnes in October–November 2025 is essential to ensure there are no difficulties in releasing the December sales quota.

For this to happen, early sugarcane crushing and the operation of a maximum number of mills in October will be critical.

In major producing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka, sugarcane acreage has surpassed last year’s figures. Now, all eyes are on the monsoon.

If July–August brings good rainfall and the crop remains free from pests and diseases, sugarcane production could increase, resulting in better sugar output.

Last year, unfavourable weather conditions from August to October significantly affected sugar production in Maharashtra and Karnataka, although Uttar Pradesh performed relatively better.

A complicated demand-supply scenario is expected to emerge, which may lead to firmer sugar prices during the festive season.

While the government is likely to take steps to curb price increases, experts believe it may have limited room for manoeuvre.