Sugar Sector Outlook Complex for Upcoming Season

12-Jun-2026 05:44 PM

New Delhi: Sugarcane sowing acreage this year is currently tracking close to last year's levels, and no significant changes are expected going forward. The Union Ministry of Agriculture has projected domestic sugarcane production at 500 million tonnes (50 crore tonnes) for the 2025-26 season and set an identical production target for the 2026-27 season. However, given the potential impact of El Niño and a weak monsoon, there are doubts about whether sugarcane production will meet these targets.

For the first half of the 2025-26 marketing season, the Central Government allocated a sugar sales quota of 13.3 million tonnes (133 lakh tonnes); however, mill dispatches indicate that total consumption rose to 14.4 million tonnes (144 lakh tonnes).

This suggests that total domestic sugar consumption for the entire current marketing season could reach 28.5–29.0 million tonnes (285–290 lakh tonnes). Conversely, sugar production in the current 2025-26 season is likely to fall below 28 million tonnes (280 lakh tonnes), with a potential further decline in the 2026-27 season.

At the start of the 2025-26 season, the domestic industry held a carry-over surplus stock of 4.9 million tonnes (49 lakh tonnes), which could drop to a range of 3.5–4.0 million tonnes (35–40 lakh tonnes) by the season's end.

By the first week of June 2026, total sugarcane sowing acreage nationwide was recorded at 5.41 million hectares (54.10 lakh hectares), slightly lower than the 5.43 million hectares (54.30 lakh hectares) recorded during the same period last year.

In Uttar Pradesh, the leading producing state, the area stood at 2.8 million hectares (28 lakh hectares), remaining on par with the previous year. Acreage in Maharashtra improved slightly to 1.18 million hectares (11.80 lakh hectares), whereas in Karnataka, it declined marginally to 0.43 million hectares (4.30 lakh hectares).

Total sowing acreage could see a further increase of 0.3–0.4 million hectares (3–4 lakh hectares). In the upcoming marketing season, total sugar availability could decline due to lower carry-over stocks and impacted production, potentially leading to a highly complex demand-supply equation. Sugarcane production in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar will depend significantly on monsoon rainfall.