The government and wheat producers will keep an eye on the weather of March.

27-Feb-2025 06:03 PM

The government and wheat producers are understandably concerned about the weather conditions in March, as it could significantly impact the wheat crop yield.

If the month turns out to be one of the hottest on record, it could affect the quality and quantity of the Rabi crops, especially wheat, which is crucial for India’s agricultural sector.

With India being the second-largest wheat producer globally, after China, the government’s target of 1150 lakh tonnes for the 2024-25 Rabi season is ambitious, especially considering the challenges faced in recent years.

The fact that the wheat sowing area has increased compared to last year is promising, but weather conditions play a vital role in determining the actual yield. Since 2022, the wheat yield has been declining due to various factors, and excessive heat in March could further worsen this trend.

If the temperatures soar above the average, it could lead to lower productivity for the fourth consecutive year, which in turn would impact government procurement targets.

The Meteorological Department's forecast indicates that temperatures may start rising in the second week of March, with highs potentially exceeding 40°C in some areas by the end of the month.

This is concerning as it could trigger a rise in domestic wheat prices, already above the Minimum Support Price (MSP), and further strain the supply-demand balance.

With a hefty 40% customs duty on wheat imports, the government’s reluctance to reduce or remove the duty adds an additional layer of complexity.

It will be interesting to see the official data released by the Meteorological Department on February 28, which should provide more clarity on the potential weather pattern.

This will be critical for both government policy and farmers as they brace for the upcoming challenges.