Weakening La Niña Increases Likelihood of El Niño

06-Feb-2026 01:18 PM

Thiruvananthapuram. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has stated that the La Niña weather pattern has weakened considerably, and sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean are currently normal, so El Niño has not yet emerged. However, as the water surface warms, the likelihood of the El Niño weather pattern developing will increase.

The neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may persist for the next three to four months. This means that if El Niño develops and arrives, it will likely only occur after June 2026.

The southwest monsoon becomes active in India in June, and the sowing of Kharif crops also begins. More than 75 percent of the country's normal rainfall occurs during this monsoon season, which is active for four months from June to September.

El Niño is not considered favorable for the monsoon as it affects rainfall. In 2023-24, the impact of El Niño led to uneven, irregular, and unpredictable monsoon rains in India, resulting in drought-like conditions in approximately 25 percent of the country. This led to a decrease in the yield of food grains and other crops.

According to BoM, there is still a long time before El Niño is expected, and in the meantime, it is necessary to closely monitor the changes in temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal, among other seas.

The possibility of El Niño arriving after June is currently only an estimate. Some weather models are giving early indications, but no concrete evidence has emerged yet.

How intense, widespread, long-lasting, and influential El Niño will be remains to be seen, but its arrival could cause some problems for India.