Weekly Review: Cumin
30-Nov-2024 07:36 PM
1. Cumin Price Trends
Cumin prices remained strong this week, and trade estimates suggest that prices will continue to rise in the coming days. The main driver behind this expected price increase is the anticipated surge in demand for Ramzan, starting in December, which is expected to push up cumin exports. As of now, the export price of cumin stands at ₹4,911 per 20 kg, but it is expected to rise to ₹5,200-5,300 per 20 kg due to the Ramzan demand. However, prices are unlikely to rise drastically because around 30% of cumin stock remains in the markets, and an increase in prices could lead to higher arrivals from farmers, balancing out the price rise.
2. Sowing Estimates and Impact on Production
There are concerns about a potential reduction in cumin sowing in Gujarat, with estimates suggesting a decrease of 20-25% in the state. In contrast, sowing in Rajasthan is expected to be on par with last year's levels. Sowing in Gujarat has been reported at 57,915 hectares as of November 25, and in Rajasthan, cumin has been sown on 6.6 lakh hectares as of November 28. The sowing process is delayed this year due to higher temperatures, with sowing expected to continue until late December, unlike previous years when sowing concluded in early December.
The total area for cumin sowing across Rajasthan and Gujarat in 2024 is expected to be lower compared to last year (around 12.64 lakh hectares in 2023), leading to a forecasted production of 75-80 lakh bags (each bag weighing 55 kg) in 2025, provided the weather remains favorable post-sowing. This is a decline from the 1.1 crore bags harvested in 2023, which was supported by favorable weather and a larger sowing area.
3. Cumin Exports
India has seen a significant uptick in cumin exports this year after a few years of sluggish performance. From April to September 2024, 128,505 tonnes of cumin were exported, a sharp increase from 76,970 tonnes during the same period last year. This surge continued into October 2024, with exports reaching 17,455 tonnes, up from 7,627 tonnes in October 2023. This rebound in exports is partly attributed to more competitive prices and the strained situation in Turkey and Syria, which has led to an increase in the demand for Indian cumin.
In total, India exported 165,269 tonnes of cumin in 2023-24, with cumulative exports in previous years reaching 186,509 tonnes (2022-23), 216,971 tonnes (2021-22), and 298,423 tonnes (2020-21).
4. Stock Levels and Market Dynamics
Despite the projected decline in sowing and production, current stock levels are higher compared to previous years. It is expected that around 15-20 lakh bags of cumin will still be in stock when the new harvest arrives, which could help stabilize prices and manage demand during the transition to the new crop.
Conclusion
Cumin prices are likely to see an increase in the coming weeks, driven by export demand and the Ramzan season. However, the supply dynamics, including reduced sowing in Gujarat and an increase in Rajasthan, may limit any drastic price rises. With a positive export trend, especially in the first half of FY 2024-25, the market outlook for cumin remains optimistic despite challenges in domestic production.