World sunflower oil situation

13-Dec-2024 11:33 AM

World sunflower oil situation
The global sunflower oil market is navigating through a period of uncertainty, with significant developments in both Ukraine and Russia affecting supply, pricing, and trade dynamics.
Ukraine:
Production: Ukraine's sunflower seed production reached 10.2 million tonnes in 2024, reflecting stability despite challenges.
Pricing at Ports:
Ukraine SFO CPT: USD 1,100 per metric ton.
Ukraine SFO CIF Mersin (Dec-Jan): USD 1,170 vs. USD 1,150 per metric ton.
RBD SFO EXW: USD 1,210 per metric ton.
Market Dynamics:
Seed sales remain slow, indicating cautious trading sentiment or reduced demand.
Russia:
Export Surge: Russia exported approximately 5 million tonnes of sunflower oil between January and November 2024, marking a 24% increase from the previous year.
Top Importers:
India: 19.6 lakh tonnes.
Turkey: 7.2 lakh tonnes.
China: 5.5 lakh tonnes.
Export Duty Policy:
Russia has implemented a dynamic export duty structure:
December: RUB 9,000.
January: ~RUB 25,000.
February: ~RUB 35,000.
This waiver benefits exporters but adds complexity to forecasting prices.
India and Local Trade:
CNF Prices for India: USD 1,225–1,250 per metric ton.
Local Market: Trades at USD 1,110–1,120 per metric ton.
Buying is expected to increase at USD 1,180 levels, indicating a sensitive price threshold for demand.
Market Overview:
The combination of Russia's increased exports and Ukraine's steady production creates a competitive market environment.
Buyers are closely watching price movements, particularly given fluctuating export duties and local trade rates.
Strategic buying is likely at key price points, but the broader market sentiment remains cautious amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
This landscape will require stakeholders to remain agile, with decisions influenced by price volatility, export policies, and shifting demand from major importers like India and Turkey.