The domestic production of black pepper in India is expected to drop by 25-30% in 2025, primarily due to crop damage caused by adverse weather conditions and irregular rainfall.

This decline may lead to an increase in imports from countries like Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Brazil to meet industrial demand.

In 2024, global black pepper production is expected to fall to 533,000 tons, which is a 10,000-ton decrease compared to 2023.

This decline is mainly attributed to reduced production in Vietnam, which saw a drop of 20,000 tons, bringing its output down to 170,000 tons. However, in 2025, Vietnam's production is forecasted to recover and reach 200,000 tons.

In India, black pepper production reached a peak of 124,000 tons in 2024, an increase of 8,000 tons compared to the previous year.

However, the outlook for 2025 is much less optimistic, with production expected to decline to 77,500 tons. Despite this, exports of black pepper from India grew by 2,056.49 tons during the first half of the financial year 2024, compared to the same period in 2023. However, imports of black pepper surged by 84.2%, rising from 4,686 tons to 8,631 tons.

Currently, the price of black pepper is profitable for farmers, with the garbled variety priced at ₹665 per kilogram and the un-garbled variety at ₹645 per kilogram.

However, the concerns over increased imports are raising alarms for indigenous producers who might face pressure on pricing and market share.