Despite a sharp drop in sugar production, the supply situation is expected to remain normal

07-Apr-2025 01:28 PM

Despite Lower Sugar Production, Supply Expected to Stay Stable

Mumbai, April 2025 – Sugarcane crushing operations have concluded in most sugar mills across India, with the remaining expected to wrap up soon, signaling an early end to the 2024–25 sugar production season.

Industry estimates have shown a significant drop in sugar production compared to the previous season (2023–24):

• ISMA: 264 lakh tonnes

• NFCSF: 259 lakh tonnes

• AISTA: 254 lakh tonnes

• Previous year's output: ~319–320 lakh tonnes

Despite the dip, the Indian Sugar and Bio Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) maintains that the supply-demand balance will remain manageable in 2024–25 and may normalize with better production next season.

However, concerns are rising about potential supply pressure during the festive season (October–November 2025). NFCSF and AISTA warn that surplus stock could fall below 50 lakh tonnes by the end of the season (30 September), possibly triggering:

• Supply crunch

• Price surge, especially with festive demand

• Increased industrial usage due to expected heatwaves (April–June), as forecasted by the Meteorological Department

Sugar prices are already higher compared to last year. If the government increases the free sale quota in October–November to meet demand, industry stock may fall to a record low, further intensifying concerns.