Global Rice Prices Expected to Rise in the Coming Months

18-May-2026 12:21 PM

Hyderabad: Estimates suggest a global decline of approximately 5 million tonnes in rice production, coupled with an increase of 3.8 million tonnes in consumption. Consequently, prices for this vital food grain are likely to remain elevated and firm in the international market over the coming months. Several other factors may also contribute to this trend. The ongoing crisis in West Asia, high crude oil prices, and weather pattern shifts caused by the El Niño phenomenon could further sustain an environment of rising and firm rice prices.

According to a leading ratings agency, the average annual futures price for rice in 2026 is projected to range between $11.7 and $12.5 per CWT. (It is worth noting that one CWT is equivalent to 45.36 kilograms.) In addition to weather-related risks, the crisis regarding the availability of chemical fertilizers is also expected to persist, potentially impacting global rice production.

In its monthly report released last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected that global rice production for the 2026–27 season would decline by 5 million tonnes compared to the 537.8 million tonnes produced in the 2025–26 season. Specifically, rice production is expected to decrease by 2 million tonnes in India,

1 million tonnes in Myanmar, and 1 million tonnes in the United States, while the remaining shortfall is anticipated across various other countries. Conversely, global rice consumption is projected to rise by 3.8 million tonnes, reaching a total of 541.4 million tonnes. Rice consumption is expected to increase significantly in South Asia—particularly in India—and in the Sub-Saharan region of Africa.

Due to the combination of lower production and higher consumption, global rice stocks are estimated to shrink by 3.6 million tonnes, settling at 192.7 million tonnes. The most significant declines in rice stocks are expected to occur in India, Cambodia, Indonesia, and the United States.