Global Sugar Prices Likely to Rise as Exports from India Halt

18-May-2026 06:05 PM

New York. The Indian government's decision on May 14 to ban sugar exports—effective immediately and remaining in force until September 30, 2026—is expected to create an environment of upward momentum and strength in global market prices. In fact, during the 2026-27 season, sugar production is projected to decline not only in India but also in other top-producing and exporting nations such as Brazil, Thailand, the European Union, and Australia. Consequently, total global sugar production is expected to fall short of consumption, potentially leading to a complex situation regarding supply and availability in the international market.

In Brazil, there is a likelihood that sugarcane will be diverted more towards ethanol production rather than sugar manufacturing—a trend for which initial indications have already begun to emerge. In India, Thailand, and Australia, the potential impact of the El Niño weather cycle is expected to result in a decline in both sugarcane and sugar production.

Meanwhile, in member nations of the European Union, farmers' enthusiasm and interest in cultivating sugar beet have waned due to their inability to secure remunerative prices for the crop. It is worth noting that in the European Union, sugar is produced from sugar beet rather than sugarcane. Sugar production is also expected to be lower in Pakistan.

Futures prices for raw sugar on the New York Exchange and for white sugar on the London Exchange are expected to remain firm over the coming months. With sugar exports from India now halted for the current marketing season, domestic availability within the country is set to increase.