i-Grain India Exclusive Report

14-May-2025 01:30 PM

i-Grain India Exclusive Report
★ India’s Desi Chana: Rising Production, Demand, and Stocks — What Lies Ahead for the Market?
★ Desi chana (chickpeas) production, demand, and import trends have witnessed significant changes in India over the past few years. Here's an in-depth look at the current market scenario and projections ahead.
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Five-Year Overview:
★ Stable Production with a Dip and Recovery
★ India’s desi chana production was 8.5 million tonnes (MMT) in R21, which increased to 9 MMT in R22.
★ However, the following two years saw a decline, dropping to 8 MMT in R24. For R25, production is expected to recover and return to 8.5 MMT.
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Surge in Imports — Australia the Key Supplier
★ The removal of import duties led to a sharp rise in chickpea imports. India’s imports are estimated to reach 1.21 MMT in R25, compared to just 60,000 tonnes in R23.
★ A major portion of this came from Australia. Although a 10% import duty was recently imposed, it had limited impact as most imports had already been completed before the duty came into effect.
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Rising Consumption Driven by Population Growth
★ Domestic consumption has been on the rise, increasing from 8 MMT in R21 to a projected 8.7 MMT in R25.
★ However, in R23 and R24, the higher import of yellow peas slightly offset the growth in desi chana consumption.
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Record Stocks but Weak Government Procurement
★ Due to increased production and record imports, India’s ending stock is estimated to rise from 2.09 MMT in R21 to 3.62 MMT in R25.
★ Despite this, government procurement has remained weak over the last two years as market prices stayed at or above the Minimum Support Price (MSP). This year, procurement could remain as low as 0.125 MMT.
★ Consequently, government stock sales may be limited, and the market will function more on actual demand-supply dynamics.
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International Outlook and Expectations
★ Australia’s old stock is nearly exhausted, and new crop sowing has begun. Acreage is likely to increase, but fresh arrivals are still four months away.
★ Meanwhile, minor imports from Africa are expected during this period.
★ Despite new domestic arrivals this season, millers and stockists made strong purchases due to empty pipelines.
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What Will the Government Do Next?
★ With rising stock levels and strong demand, chickpea prices are expected to remain firm in the near term.
★ Key market players are closely watching for possible government interventions to stabilize prices — such as the imposition of stock limits or an extension of the duty-free yellow pea import window.