IGrain India Exclusive Report | Wheat Market Analysis – June 2025
10-Jun-2025 04:28 PM
IGrain India Exclusive Report | Wheat Market Analysis – June 2025
★ Record Output, Limited Procurement... What's Next?
★ The Story Begins – Record Production, But Tepid Government Procurement
★ Wheat production in Rabi 2025 has touched a record high. Yet, surprisingly, government procurement hasn’t kept pace with expectations.
Procurement figures (in lakh tonnes):
* Rabi 2025 – 299
* Rabi 2024 – 266
* Rabi 2023 – 260
* Rabi 2022 – 188
* Rabi 2021 – 433
★ While production has reached a five-year high, procurement hasn’t matched that momentum. Private traders bought wheat at higher prices, leaving FCI’s stockpiles relatively lighter.
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Stock Status – Comfortable Warehouses, a Relief for the Government
Stock levels (in lakh tonnes):
* April 2024 – 75.2
* June 2024 – 300 (post-procurement)
* April 2025 – 118
* May 2025 – 356
* June 2025 – 370
* June 2023 – 313
★ The official buffer stock norm for July: 275.6 lakh tonnes
★ Government stocks are now in the “comfort zone,” giving policymakers room to intervene in the market if needed.
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Price Trends – Calm After the Storm
* January 2025: Wheat peaked at ₹3,360/quintal in Delhi
* April 2025: Declined to ₹2,610
* June 2025: Recovered slightly to ₹2,745
★ Status: Prices are stable, but the market remains cautious.
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Government Strategy – Early Stock Limits, OMSS on the Horizon
★ The government imposed stock limits earlier than usual this year, and there are indications that wheat may soon be released into the market through the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS).
★ Future stock limits could be even stricter, highlighting the increasing importance of government action.
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The Bonus Game in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh
★ Bonus declarations by the governments of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh gave a fresh boost to procurement.
★ While other states saw subdued procurement, these two states reported higher volumes, thanks to the bonus incentive.
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IGrain India’s View – The Market Still Has Energy
* Wheat from Rajasthan and MP is costlier than from UP, but demand remains firm
* Prices could rise during consumption-heavy months, though reaching last year’s highs seems unlikely
* Government intervention will be the key market drive.
Conclusion – Keep Watching Closely
* Stocks are strong
* Private traders dominate
* Government role will be decisive
* Limited but potential upside in prices
★ IGrain India will continue tracking every data point, every policy move, and every market shift. Stay tuned for the next update.