IGrain India Market Insight | Desi Chana Outlook– June 2025
10-Jun-2025 04:51 PM
IGrain India Market Insight | Desi Chana Outlook– June 2025
★ Australian Exports Surge, But Stocks Now Low – What Lies Ahead for India?
★ Export Story – Australia Flooded the Market, But Now Drying Up
★ Australia significantly ramped up Desi Chana exports in the 2024–25 window, particularly between November and April.
Australian Desi Chana Exports (in metric tonnes):
* April 2024 – 12,061
* April 2025 – 71,779 (+83% YoY)
* Nov 2023 – April 2024 – 2,80,870
* Nov 2024 – April 2025 – 18,40,990
★ Massive surge in exports—more than sixfold over the previous year—driven by a strong crop and robust demand from key markets like India.
Indian Imports – Active Early, Silent Later
* February 2025 – 2,32,687
* March 2025 – 33,000
* April 2025 – 0
* Total (Feb–April 2025) – 2,65,687
★ India was a major buyer early in the year, but no export reported in April. Domestic pipelines are now being sustained by earlier purchases.
Supply Shift – Stocks Now Tight in Australia
★ Australia’s current Chana stocks are critically low. Sowing for the new crop is underway, but ABARES projects a 17% drop in production for the upcoming harvest, due to weather and acreage challenges.
★ New crop arrivals are expected only from September onwards.
India's Scenario – Besan and Dall Demand Will Test Stocks
★ In India, Desi Chana is in active demand for besan and dall production, especially with festival consumption ahead.
★ Government stocks are limited and no fresh imports lined up, meaning the **market will rely on domestic inventories till November.
Outlook – Prices Likely to Strengthen
* Tight Australian stocks
* Delay in new supply
* Strong domestic consumption
* Low government reserves
★ All these factors are expected to support firm to rising prices through to November 2025.
Other Pulse Dynamics – Pea Imports Extended
★ The government has extended zero-duty yellow pea imports till 31 March 2026.
★ This time, however, the industry seems to have absorbed pea imports as a supplementary substitute, particularly for processing, without disrupting overall demand for Desi Chana.
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IGrain India View – Chana’s Supportive Phase May Continue
* Prices may gradually rise till fresh Aussie supply arrives
* Government may monitor stock levels closely
* Market players watch both sowing updates and upcoming demand cycle