Likelihood of Widening Rainfall Deficit in September

18-Aug-2026 07:41 PM

New Delhi: The El Niño weather cycle is steadily intensifying, raising concerns about its impact on the trajectory and behavior of India's southwest monsoon. While rainfall continues in some parts of the country, it is expected to taper off by the end of August. Consequently, a significant rainfall deficit is projected for September.

According to a European weather agency, the influence of El Niño on the southwest monsoon could lead to a rainfall shortfall in September. Although monsoon conditions in India were favorable during July and August—with this year's performance ranking among the best recorded during El Niño years—a lack of rain in September could cause some damage to Kharif crops. While there have been fluctuations in the sowing areas for various crops, their overall condition remains normal or satisfactory.

Weather agencies predict that the monsoon's withdrawal phase will begin in mid-September this year, starting from the country's northwestern region. A private weather agency has forecast that total monsoon rainfall this year will be 85 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). As of August 16, the rainfall deficit stood at 13 percent, and there is a 70 percent probability of dry conditions prevailing in September.