News Capsule: India May Struggle to Achieve 2.5 Million Tonne Wheat Export Target
18-Feb-2026 10:32 AM
News Capsule: India May Struggle to Achieve 2.5 Million Tonne Wheat Export Target
★ India is likely to face difficulties in exporting the permitted 2.5 million tonnes (mt) of wheat after lifting its nearly four-year-old export ban, as domestic prices remain significantly higher than prevailing global rates, traders and analysts said.
★ The government has fixed the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for the 2026-27 marketing season at ₹2,585 per quintal, up ₹160 from last year. The higher MSP has pushed up domestic wheat prices, reducing competitiveness in the international market.
★ Currently, wheat delivered at Kandla port is priced between ₹25,200 and ₹25,500 per tonne, equivalent to $285–288 per tonne. ★ After adding freight of about $20 per tonne to destinations in West Asia and South-East Asia, the cost rises to $305–308 per tonne.
★ In comparison, global wheat prices are ruling at around $260 per tonne, making Indian wheat costlier by $45–48 per tonne.
★ Global trading houses are offering wheat for shipment in the second half of March at $286–290 per tonne. Wheat from the Black Sea region is around $20 per tonne cheaper than Indian 11.5% protein wheat, further limiting India’s export prospects.
★ Market participants say farmers are unlikely to sell below MSP levels, leaving little room for exporters to reduce prices.
★ One possible outlet for Indian wheat could be exports to Bangladesh via road or rail from Bihar. The estimated export price stands at around $283 per tonne, compared with Bangladesh’s current landing price of $270 per tonne.
★ However, traders estimate that exports through this route may not exceed 100,000 tonnes — a fraction of the 2.5 mt target.
★ With domestic prices firm and no export subsidy currently in place, achieving the full 2.5 million tonne export target appears challenging. Unless global wheat prices rise sharply or special export incentives are introduced, India may struggle to secure large overseas buyers in the current market environment.