Potential Imbalance in Sugar Sector if Sugarcane Acreage Remains Stagnant

10-Jun-2026 06:02 PM

New Delhi. A powerful El Niño weather cycle is expected to have a widespread impact on the country this year, potentially affecting the sugarcane crop. Under these circumstances, if the area under sugarcane cultivation remains equal to or lower than the previous season, sugar production could decline, leaving the supply-demand balance precariously poised.

Although domestic sugar production in the 2025-26 season saw an increase of approximately 1.5–1.6 million tonnes compared to 2024-25, the total output still fell short of demand and requirements. The industry holds no substantial carry-over stock, nor is there expected to be a significant surplus for the upcoming season (October 2026–September 2027).

In this scenario, sugar production could drop sharply if the El Niño cycle, a weak monsoon, and high temperatures lead to a decline in average sugarcane yields and sugar recovery rates. Anticipating this risk, the government has banned sugar exports, thereby averting a supply crisis for the 2025-26 season; however, the threat persists for the following season.

Data from the Union Ministry of Agriculture indicates that as of June 5, the total sugarcane acreage in the country stood at 5.408 million hectares, matching the previous year's figures. While the total area is expected to reach 5.85 million hectares—comparable to last year—sugar stocks are projected to deplete significantly.