The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) will release weekly Export Sales data on Thursday morning. Traders expect sales for the final half-week of the 2025/26 marketing year to range from net reductions of 100,000 metric tons to net sales of 100,000 metric tons. New-crop wheat sales for the week ending June 4 are expected between 200,000 and 600,000 metric tons.

Wheat production estimates will be updated through the monthly Crop Production report. Bloomberg analysts expect U.S. wheat production at 1.555 billion bushels. Winter wheat production is estimated at 1.04 billion bushels, reflecting an 8 million bushel reduction. Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat production is projected at 508 million bushels, down 7 million bushels, while Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat production is expected at 302 million bushels, up 1 million bushel.

U.S. old-crop ending stocks are forecast at 941 million bushels, 6 million bushels higher than May estimates. New-crop ending stocks are projected at 764 million bushels, a slight increase of 2 million bushels. Coceral estimates the combined wheat crop of the European Union and the United Kingdom at 143.7 million metric tons, up 1.1 million metric tons from its previous forecast.