Rainfall in Southern Peninsula Stalls Monsoon Withdrawal

Thiruvananthapuram: Although the Southwest Monsoon began withdrawing from northwest India on September 19—moving past states like Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Chandigarh, and Delhi towards the central and eastern regions—rainfall in South India has caused a pause in its retreat. The Meteorological Department had stated that the Southwest Monsoon would completely withdraw from India by October 15, coinciding with the potential arrival of the Northeast Monsoon.

According to the department, a circulation system is forming over the Bay of Bengal; it is expected to intensify and potentially transform into a low-pressure area or a depression by October 15. This would signal the onset of the Northeast Monsoon and could bring significant rainfall to the southern states.

Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for the monsoon to withdraw from eastern and northeastern India and adjacent regions. This trend is likely to persist through the current and coming weeks, potentially allowing the monsoon to retreat from the northern parts of the southern peninsula as well.

This implies that the arrival of the Northeast Monsoon could coincide with the departure of the Southwest Monsoon. Such a transition is unlikely to follow the standard sequence, as the simultaneous presence of two monsoons could result in heightened intensity.

Heavy rainfall occurred on October 5–6 in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Mahe, Puducherry, South Interior Karnataka, Karaikal, and Rayalaseema. Rain is also expected in Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, North and Interior Karnataka, and Madhya Maharashtra. It will be interesting to observe the extent of relief this rainfall provides to Kharif crops.