Rainfall in Southern States Due to Retreating Monsoon

Thiruvananthapuram: The withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from northwest India has already begun, and it will now move across the northern and central parts of the country to reach South India. The Meteorological Department has projected that the monsoon will completely withdraw from the country by October 15. Meanwhile, the Northeast Monsoon season has formally commenced today, October 1, 2026, though it may take some time for it to gain momentum.

The monsoon was quite weak in South India this season, resulting in rainfall below the long-term average. This led to a decline in the sowing of Kharif crops, particularly affecting paddy production areas. A new spell of rainfall has now begun in states like Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, which may offer some relief to Kharif crops; however, it is unlikely to fully compensate for the heavy losses already incurred due to the drought. Interestingly, despite the deficient rainfall, the sowing of pulses and oilseeds increased in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, with a notable rise in the acreage of *Tur* (pigeon pea) and *Urad* (black gram).

While South India typically receives significant rainfall from the Northeast Monsoon, the intensifying El Niño weather cycle is likely to impact precipitation levels this time. Water stocks in the dams and reservoirs of southern states are also low. Several *tehsils* in Karnataka have already been declared drought-affected, and parts of Maharashtra are also facing a severe drought situation.