Red Chili Prices Firm; No Downturn Likely in the Near Term
21-Aug-2026 07:36 PM
New Delhi. Industry sources indicate that export demand for red chili is currently limited due to high prices. However, prices have risen by ₹3–5 per kg over the past week, driven by low market arrivals and improved local buying. Given the current situation, a price drop is unlikely in the immediate future. This is because red chili production has fallen by 30–35% this season, resulting in low market stocks, while the new crop from Madhya Pradesh is not expected to arrive until the end of October. Sowing has also been delayed in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana due to a lack of rainfall.
Low Stocks
Traders estimate that red chili stocks at the Guntur market in Andhra Pradesh currently stand at 35–38 lakh bags, compared to 45–46 lakh bags during the same period last year. Stocks at the Khammam market are estimated at 14–15 lakh bags, down from 18–20 lakh bags last year. Reports suggest that stocks in Warangal are also 4–5 lakh bags lower than last year; current estimates place Warangal's stock at 12–13 lakh bags.
No Significant Downturn
Sources state that the market is unlikely to see a downturn until the new crop from Madhya Pradesh arrives. If export demand picks up in the coming days, red chili prices could rise by another ₹8–10 per kg in September; if demand remains stagnant, prices are likely to fluctuate within a range of ₹3–5 per kg. Currently, the price of 'Teja' variety red chili is ₹224–225 per kg in the Guntur market, while it is quoted at ₹229–230 per kg in Khammam. Prices in Warangal are being quoted at ₹218–220.
Arrivals
Since the bulk of the total produce has already reached the markets, current arrivals of farmers' produce in the mandis have dropped significantly. According to available information, arrivals at the Guntur mandi have fallen to 14,000–15,000 bags, while Warangal and Khammam are seeing arrivals of 4,000–5,000 bags. Export trade is subdued due to high prices.
Madhya Pradesh
In Madhya Pradesh, red chili sowing has been carried out over an area twice the size of last year's. Post-sowing weather conditions have also remained favorable for the crop. Consequently, forecasts suggest that red chili production in Madhya Pradesh will double this year compared to the previous year. Last year, production in the state stood at 28–30 lakh bags, whereas this year it is expected to rise to 55–60 lakh bags, provided the crop remains free from disease in the coming days.
Exports
Red chili exports have been impacted this year due to high prices; demand from China has been low, and buying from Bangladesh has also remained limited. According to data released by the Spices Board, the volume of red chili exports dropped by 35% during the first two months (April–May) of 2026–27; however, earnings remained on par with the previous year due to higher export prices. Reports indicate that during April–May 2026, red chili exports totaled 119,438 tonnes, generating revenue of ₹2,603 crore. In contrast, during April–May 2025, exports stood at 185,011 tonnes with earnings of ₹2,592 crore. For the full year 2025–26, total red chili exports were 683,681 tonnes, yielding revenue of ₹10,395.59 crore.