Rice Production Feared to be Impacted in Several Countries

14-May-2026 05:59 PM

New Delhi. A leading rating agency states that rice production in countries such as India, Thailand, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Myanmar could be adversely affected during 2026 due to the impact of the El Niño weather cycle. Furthermore, rice production is also likely to decline in nations like Pakistan, the United States, and Brazil. Global rice production for the 2025-26 season is projected to reach 540.1 million tonnes.

It is noteworthy that while various associations, organizations, agencies, and global institutions are offering differing estimates regarding rice production, there is one common thread: they have all indicated a likelihood of a decline in output. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected a figure of 542.8 million tonnes for the 2025-26 season.

According to the rating agency, weather conditions in India are expected to remain normal in the near future, and the country possesses an adequate stock of fertilizers to meet initial requirements. If the Southwest Monsoon arrives on schedule and remains active, it could pave the way for a strong start to paddy cultivation.

However, it remains essential to closely monitor how the weather and monsoon patterns evolve going forward. The impact of the El Niño weather cycle is feared to be most pronounced across South Asia—including India—and Southeast Asia.

This region also encompasses China, Indonesia, and South Korea. Approximately 80 percent of the world's rice is produced in Asia, with India, Thailand, and Vietnam standing as the top three exporting nations.