Rising Sea Surface Temperatures Heighten Threat of El Niño

02-Jun-2026 04:36 PM

Boston. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)—a specialized agency of the United Nations—states that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are rising rapidly, thereby accelerating the pace at which El Niño is developing and advancing. It appears that this climatic cycle is right on our doorstep and could strike at any moment. According to the organization, the probability of El Niño's onset between June and August has risen to 80 percent, while there is a 90 percent likelihood that its activity will persist beyond November.

This situation could prove concerning for India, as the sowing of Kharif crops typically begins in June, and the cultivation of Rabi crops commences in October. The months of July and August witness the heaviest rainfall, coinciding with the peak period for Kharif crop sowing. Similarly, the majority of Rabi crop sowing takes place during November and December.

Indications derived from meteorological models suggest that El Niño is likely to be at least of normal intensity, though the possibility of it evolving into a strong and powerful phenomenon remains. However, a degree of uncertainty currently persists regarding its peak intensity and duration. It remains difficult to state with certainty at this stage whether a "Super El Niño" will form, or precisely when it might reach its peak intensity.

Most weather forecasting centers across the globe are predicting a likelihood of temperatures remaining above the seasonal average during the months of June, July, and August. The threshold of sea surface warmth required to trigger the onset of El Niño is expected to be reached very shortly. Certain regions could experience temperatures significantly higher than normal, potentially exacerbating the risk of drought crises. Consequently, apprehensions regarding a negative impact on agricultural production are on the rise.