Russia is expected to export 450 lakh tonnes of wheat in the next season
14-May-2025 06:12 PM
Moscow. After China and India, Russia is the third largest wheat producer in the world, but it holds the top position in wheat exports.
This year, the crop condition in Russia is slightly better than last year, which is expected to lead to a marginal increase in production and boost exportable surplus.
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Russia produced approximately 816 lakh tonnes of wheat during the 2024-25 marketing season (July-June), with expected exports of 435 lakh tonnes.
For the upcoming 2025-26 season, production is projected to rise by 14 lakh tonnes to reach 830 lakh tonnes, and exports are expected to grow by 15 lakh tonnes to 450 lakh tonnes.
Russia also has some carryover wheat stock, and demand from key importing nations like Egypt and Türkiye remains strong.
Russian wheat continues to enjoy a competitive edge in the international market due to its lower prices compared to wheat from the US, Canada, Argentina, Australia, and European Union member states. Additionally, Russia faces no significant logistical issues with sea transport or shipping.
According to USDA data, in the 2025-26 season, Argentina's wheat exports are projected to increase from 110 lakh tonnes to 130 lakh tonnes, and the European Union’s from 265 lakh tonnes to 340 lakh tonnes.
Ukraine is also expected to improve its exports slightly from 160 lakh tonnes to 165 lakh tonnes, while Canadian exports may remain steady at 270 lakh tonnes.
In contrast, wheat exports from Australia may decline from 250 lakh tonnes to 230 lakh tonnes, and those from the US from 223 lakh tonnes to 218 lakh tonnes.
The arrival of new wheat in the US, Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union typically begins in July 2025, while in Australia and Argentina, supplies start increasing during October to December.
Wheat sowing has already begun in Australia, but due to dry conditions, seed germination has been inadequate.
As a result, wheat production there is forecast to drop by 31 lakh tonnes, from 341 lakh tonnes in the 2024-25 season to 310 lakh tonnes in 2025-26.