Stagnation in monsoon is a matter of concern

07-Jun-2025 11:41 AM

This time, there are high expectations from the southwest monsoon, which reached the Indian mainland eight days ahead of schedule, raising farmers’ hopes for abundant rainfall this season. A good monsoon is considered crucial for the successful production of Kharif crops, as a significant portion of Indian agriculture still depends heavily on rain. Last year, favorable rainfall conditions led to a notable improvement in agricultural output, especially rice, which reached record production levels.

During the current year, there was substantial rainfall between 24 and 31 May, bringing early relief and optimism. However, since 1 June, the monsoon has shown signs of stagnation, with reduced intensity and minimal movement. This has raised serious concerns among farmers and agricultural planners. Although the Meteorological Department has forecast above-normal rainfall for June at the national level, the monsoon’s lack of activity in the first week suggests an uneven distribution of rain across regions.

The concern lies in the fact that while monthly totals might still be met, the distribution and consistency of rainfall are critical for sowing and early crop development. The European Weather Forecasting Centre has indicated that the monsoon may become fully active and dynamic only by July. This implies that for much of June, the monsoon could remain sluggish or limited in its reach.

High temperatures and the absence of rain in several parts of the country are making it difficult for farmers to prepare their fields for Kharif sowing. While regions like southern India, the northeastern states, and Maharashtra have received substantial rain, the rest of the country is still awaiting the monsoon’s arrival. The official window for the monsoon to reach these areas is still open, so there is no cause for alarm yet. However, the early arrival of the monsoon had raised hopes of an earlier spread across the country, which now seems less likely.

That said, the current situation is not expected to mirror the drought of 2009, when the monsoon arrived on 23 May but then remained inactive for a long stretch, causing a severe drought.