Sugar Production Estimated to Fall Short of Domestic Consumption
18-Apr-2026 11:55 AM
New Delhi. Based on the supply and availability of sugarcane, the pace of crushing operations, and the rate at which mills are concluding their operations, it is clearly evident that—much like the previous year—sugar production during the current marketing season will fall short of domestic demand and consumption. Data from the two leading industry bodies—the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) and the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF)—reveals that approximately 27.5 million tonnes of sugar had been produced in the country as of April 15 this year, with the potential for an additional 0.3 to 0.4 million tonnes of production in the coming days. Overall, the gross sugar production for the entire 2025-26 marketing season is projected to be at or slightly below the 28 million-tonne mark.
Conversely, domestic demand and consumption for sugar are projected to range between a lower bound of 28.5 million tonnes and an upper bound of 29.5 million tonnes. Consequently, a gap of 0.5 to 1.5 million tonnes is likely to persist between sugar demand and supply, thereby exerting pressure on the final carry-over stock. A matter of concern is the apprehension that sugar production may decline further during the 2026-27 marketing season, as the impact of the El Niño weather cycle could lead to reduced monsoon rainfall, potentially resulting in lower sugarcane yields.
The government has authorized the export of over 1.5 million tonnes of sugar for the current 2025-26 marketing season, of which export contracts for more than 0.6 million tonnes have already been finalized. If shipments totaling 0.8 to 1 million tonnes are successfully executed by the end of the season, the total sugar stock held by mills could drop below the levels recorded during the 2024-25 season. While market conditions during the ongoing 2025-26 season are expected to remain relatively stable, the likelihood of increased complexities arising during the 2026-27 season remains high.