U.S. Almond Production Set to Rise by 10%

21-Jul-2025 03:00 PM

Los Angeles. The US National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has raised its estimate for domestic almond production this year by 7 percent compared to its May report. However, market analysts are skeptical about such a significant increase and believe the new figures may add more uncertainty instead of stabilizing the market.

In May 2025, NASS estimated almond production at 2.80 billion pounds (12.70 lakh tonnes), but the July report has revised this figure upward to 3 billion pounds (13.61 lakh tonnes). If accurate, this would make it the second-largest almond crop since 2020–21 and around 10 percent higher than the 2024 production.

Despite this optimistic estimate, trade analysts suggest actual production may fall short. They point out that few new almond trees have been planted in recent years, and producers are seeing declining profits.

As older trees become less productive and are not being maintained, some orchards have been abandoned. This situation could lead to a significant gap between NASS estimates and actual production.

Rough projections indicate that by the end of the 2024–25 marketing season, there will be a carryover stock of around 2.50 lakh tonnes of almonds. With an estimated 13.61 lakh tonnes of new production, total almond availability in the US for 2025–26 could reach 16.10 lakh tonnes, up from 14.34 lakh tonnes in 2024–25.

So far, contracts have been signed for the sale of about 50,559 tonnes of new shelled almonds for the 2025–26 season. According to the NASS report, the 2025 almond crop is expected to be produced from 13.90 lakh acres of orchards, with an average yield of 0.98 tonnes per acre. In 2024, the area was 13.80 lakh acres, yielding 12.38 lakh tonnes with an average of 0.90 tonnes per acre.

In previous years, almond production in the US was 11.14 lakh tonnes in 2023, 11.70 lakh tonnes in 2022, 13.31 lakh tonnes in 2021, and 14.13 lakh tonnes in 2020.