Walnuts: Global production expected to rise – International Nut and Dried Fruit Council Congress

20-May-2025 11:19 AM

Walnuts: Global production expected to rise – International Nut and Dried Fruit Council Congress
Global Outlook
★ For the 2025/2026 season, global walnut production is projected to increase by approximately 6%, while global supply is expected to rise by 4%. Supply is anticipated to grow from 2.762 million metric tons in 2024/2025 to 2.866 million metric tons in 2025/2026.
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China: Stable production, improved quality
★ Projected production: 1.55 million metric tons (in-shell basis), roughly unchanged from 2024/2025
★ Kernel size and fill are expected to improve this season, reducing issues with smaller kernels
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California
★ Weather conditions have been favorable, with no water issues
★ A 14% increase in production is projected compared to 2024
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Chile
★ After a poor crop in 2024, production is expected to rebound by up to 25%
★ Mexico, impacted by Trump-era tariffs on U.S. almonds, may shift its walnut imports to Chile
★ This shift could benefit Chilean exporters
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Tariff reductions between U.S. and China
★ The U.S. has reduced its additional tariff on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%
★ China has lowered its tariff on U.S. walnuts from 125% to 10%
★ These changes are in effect for a 90-day period
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India
★ India’s production in 2024–25 was approximately 33,000 metric tons, expected to drop by 9% to 30,000 metric tons in 2025–26
★ India imports a significant amount of walnuts from Chile
★ If Mexican importers increase purchases from Chile, it may drive up Chilean prices
★ With declining domestic production, India is likely to increase imports, and if global prices rise, domestic prices in India could also see an upward trend