The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that temperatures in India will remain above average during the winter months of December 2024 to February 2025, which may have adverse effects on the yield of key crops like wheat and mustard.

These crops are crucial for India, especially for Rabi season farming, as they require cooler temperatures for proper growth and maturity.

The current weather forecast suggests that both the minimum and maximum temperatures will be higher than normal, with a possibility of a cold wave occurring intermittently.

Since most of the sowing for Rabi crops like wheat, gram, lentils, and mustard happens between October and December, a warm winter could hinder the crops' development. The success of these crops is highly dependent on favorable weather conditions, especially during their maturation phase, for optimal yield.

Industry experts are concerned that a reduction in wheat and mustard yields could worsen India's already heavy reliance on imports of pulses and edible oils.

This situation is compounded by limited government stocks of wheat, as domestic production has been severely impacted by high temperatures in recent years.

The government's efforts to control the prices of essential grains, such as wheat, through measures like the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS), are crucial. Despite these efforts, the price of wheat remains high, having reached Rs 32,000 per tonne in Delhi, compared to Rs 25,000 per tonne earlier in the year.

The government has successfully halted wheat imports and has imposed a ban on the commercial export of wheat and its products to ensure domestic supply, though this ban is expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

The Minimum Support Price (MSP) for wheat has been increased by Rs 150, from Rs 2,275 per quintal for the 2023-24 season to Rs 2,425 per quintal for the 2024-25 season.

If the predicted warm winter comes to pass, it could further strain the country's food security and economic stability, particularly for wheat and mustard production.