★ On February 13, 2026, the government approved the export of 2.5 million tons of wheat along with an additional 0.5 million tons of wheat products. However, the impact has not yet been visible in domestic markets. On February 13, 2026, Delhi wheat opened at ₹2,740 per quintal and closed ₹10 lower at ₹2,730. Today as well, Delhi wheat opened at ₹2,730 per quintal. This clearly indicates that the announcement of export approval has not provided any significant support to prices.

★ Global wheat prices are currently around $240–250 per ton, while Indian wheat FOB prices are near $280–300 per ton. At this price difference, Indian wheat remains uncompetitive in the global market, raising the question of who would import wheat from India under current conditions.

★ Wheat stocks in the central pool were above 25 million tons as of February 10. Additionally, sales under the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) are ongoing. The government had also recently removed stock limits on wheat, yet this measure has not had any noticeable impact on market prices.

★ With large central pool stocks and expectations of a bumper crop, the possibility of a significant price rise appears limited.

★ IGrain India believes that a major rally in wheat prices is unlikely in the near term. Markets may remain stable around current levels, and with the arrival of the new crop, prices could even slip below the MSP.