Wheat stock limits: Government moves early this time, aims to control market

25-Jun-2025 05:09 PM

Wheat stock limits: Government moves early this time, aims to control market
★ The government has taken early steps this year to regulate wheat stocks—well ahead of the usual schedule.
★ In the 2025 season, the first stock limit was imposed on May 28, 2025, which is 27 days earlier than the 2024 season and 15 days earlier than the 2023 season.
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Timeline for the 2023 season:
1. First order – June 12, 2023
2. Second order – September 14, 2023 → after 94 days
3. Third order – December 8, 2023 → after 85 days
4. Fourth order – February 8, 2024 → after 62 days
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Timeline for the 2024 season:
1. First order – June 24, 2024
2. Second order – September 13, 2024 → after 81 days
3. Third order – December 11, 2024 → after 89 days
4. Fourth order – February 20, 2025 → after 71 days
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★ Currently, wheat availability in the market is ample, and prices remain relatively stable. Given this, it's expected that the government may first tighten the stock limits further to keep prices under control.
★ The industry had anticipated that the OMSS (Open Market Sale Scheme) would be launched in July or August. However, with the market remaining calm, the scheme's rollout may now be delayed.
★ We believe the government’s strategy will begin by tightening stock limits to force private stock into the market. If necessary, it will later move to increase availability through OMSS wheat sales in the open market.
★ At present, satisfactory wheat stocks are available both with private traders and in the central pool. If the gap between supply and demand widens, the government is unlikely to delay in taking fresh action.