China’s Soybean Demand Declines, Stocks Rise: USDA Report
30-Sep-2025 10:32 AM
China’s Soybean Demand Declines, Stocks Rise: USDA Report
★ China stops U.S. soybean purchases, record imports from Brazil; pressure building on India
★ The USDA in its September 25, 2025 report, stated that China’s soybean consumption declined during the 2025 season, while ending stocks rose slightly compared to last year.
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2025 Season Overview
★ China began the 2025 season with 45.1 MMT of soybean stocks (previous season – 41.97 MMT). Domestic production stood at 19.93 MMT (previous season – 19.91 MMT), while imports totaled 106 MMT (previous season – 107 MMT). This brought total availability to 168.88 MMT (previous season – 171.03 MMT).
★ Domestic consumption, including crushing, fell to 125.6 MMT (previous season – 133 MMT), leaving ending stocks at 45.31 MMT (previous season – 45.1 MMT).
★ Reduced consumption has eased pressure on imports, resulting in marginally higher stocks, even though production remains almost unchanged.
★ China has not made any new soybean purchases from the U.S. since May 2025. U.S. soybeans currently face a 23% tariff, making them uncompetitive in the Chinese commercial market.
★ In May 2025, China recorded its highest-ever monthly soybean imports at 13.9 MMT, of which 12.1 MMT came from Brazil. Between June and August, Brazil exported more than 10 MMT per month to China.
★ As Brazilian supplies began tightening and prices moved higher in recent weeks, China booked additional cargoes from Argentina and Uruguay.
★ With China avoiding U.S. soybeans, Washington is reportedly increasing pressure on India to step up purchases of U.S. soybeans to offset lost Chinese demand.