The cumin market is experiencing a subdued price outlook due to sluggish domestic demand, despite some positive developments in sowing and weather conditions in Gujarat and Rajasthan, the two main producing states.

As of now, sowing has improved gradually, with Gujarat reporting more than 2.62 lakh hectares sown. However, there is still significant stock left from last season’s large production, contributing to pressure on the market.

This has resulted in a steady or slightly lower price range in key markets like Unjha Mandi, where prices are hovering around ₹4750-4900 per 20 kg, and the average daily arrival has dropped to 7000-8000 bags. 

The domestic demand remains weak, and prices will likely remain stable or soft unless there is a significant uptick in export demand.

The export scenario has been affected by geopolitical issues in key cumin-producing countries like Syria, where exports have almost halted due to the ongoing war, and limited stock availability in Turkey, Iran, and Afghanistan.

However, there are expectations of stronger demand from China and the Gulf countries, which could help drive the price up. 

A notable increase in cumin exports from India has been observed, with 1.29 lakh tonnes shipped in the first half of the current financial year, a significant rise compared to 77,000 tonnes in the same period last year.

The export of cumin from India is expected to rise further, particularly to Muslim-majority countries as the next consignment arrives in February-March 2024.

Therefore, while domestic demand remains weak for now, the cumin market could see better prospects in the near future, largely driven by exports.