Edible Oil Prices Likely to Soften Amid Global Tariff Tensions

25-Apr-2025 03:16 PM

Mumbai, April 2025 – Global edible oil prices are under pressure as the U.S. escalates its tariff war with major trading partners, including China, significantly impacting the international soybean trade. As a result, India's import costs for edible oils have started to decline, offering potential relief to consumers.

Traditionally, China has been the largest importer of American soybean, but escalating trade tensions have nearly halted shipments. While the U.S. claims ongoing talks, China has denied any current negotiations. In parallel, Mexico is reportedly increasing its oilseed imports from Brazil, further reducing U.S. export prospects.

Prices of soybean and soy oil in the U.S. are witnessing downward pressure. Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean harvest has concluded with abundant stock, and Argentina has also begun fresh arrivals, contributing to a possible decline in soy oil prices globally.

In Malaysia, the futures price of crude palm oil (CPO) has shown some recent strength on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD) Exchange, but overall sentiment remains weak due to growing stockpiles and subdued export demand.

Between April 11 and 21, India saw a 7–8% drop in the import cost of crude palm oil and RBD palmolein, while the price of crude degummed soybean oil declined by $48 per tonne.

According to industry analysts, if global trade tensions persist, India may benefit through reduced edible oil prices. Additionally, a strong domestic mustard harvest has helped stabilize prices further.

However, experts note that if soy oil prices remain soft, palm oil prices are unlikely to stay elevated for long due to competitive pressure in the global market.