El Niño likely to intensify during the monsoon season

02-Jan-2026 11:51 AM

Thiruvananthapuram: At present, the Indian Ocean Dipole is in a neutral phase and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal, which has kept the La Niña weather pattern active. However, this activity is expected to weaken and end by February, after which the emergence and onset of the El Niño weather pattern is likely. This could have an impact on monsoon rainfall. That said, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has stated that it would be premature to make any definite forecast at this stage. Still, available signals suggest that during the January–March quarter, rainfall over the northwestern parts of the country could be below normal.

According to the Meteorological Department, although there is a broad global consensus that the El Niño weather pattern may develop during the July–August–September period, it is still difficult to reach any firm conclusion. Rainfall may remain below normal in the northwestern regions over the next three months, but due to the availability of good irrigation facilities, rabi crops are not expected to face major difficulties there.

The El Niño weather pattern is generally considered adverse to the southwest monsoon. When its intensity increases, monsoon-season rainfall can either be severely affected or, in some cases, turn out to be exceptionally good. It is important to note that the cultivation and progress of kharif crops in the country take place during this monsoon season. These crops include paddy (rice), arhar (pigeon pea), urad (black gram), moong (green gram), jowar, bajra, maize, millets, soybean, and cotton.

According to the Director General of the Meteorological Department, the La Niña weather pattern may remain active for another one to two months, with ENSO conditions likely to turn neutral by March. Neutral conditions may persist during the April–June quarter, but the impact of El Niño could begin during the July–September 2026 quarter.