Export Earnings May Fall Amid Weak Global Rice Prices

10-Jul-2025 05:20 PM

New Delhi. The global market price of rice has been under pressure for several months due to weak demand in major importing countries across Asia and Africa, along with strong stock positions in key exporting countries, including India.

Since the Government of India lifted controls and duties on the commercial export of all varieties and categories of rice, prices have softened considerably.

Prior to this policy change, rice prices were running high. Experts note that since India accounts for 40-42 percent of global rice exports, any major policy shift here quickly impacts the international market.

Rice exports from India have been steady. In April and May 2025, the country exported 12.26 lakh tonnes of Basmati rice and approximately 23.16 lakh tonnes of non-Basmati rice.

These figures are from before the Iran-Israel conflict erupted. Although the war, which escalated in June, may slightly affect Basmati rice exports, it is unlikely to have a major impact on overall rice shipments.

In fact, non-Basmati rice exports are expected to improve in June, as stocks purchased in large quantities by African countries during January to March have begun to run low.

Export performance in July is also expected to remain positive due to the availability of a large exportable surplus and competitive pricing. The current exchange rate of the rupee against the dollar is also favorable for importers.

To remain competitive, rice-exporting countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Myanmar have been forced to reduce their export offer prices.

In Thailand, the price of 5 percent broken white rice has dropped below $400 per tonne for the first time in a long period.

Prices from Vietnam and Pakistan are already on the lower side. According to trade analysts, there is little likelihood of a significant rise in global rice prices in the near future.