Global and Indian Sugar Situation (2024/25)
10-Dec-2024 10:36 AM
Global and Indian Sugar Situation (2024/25)
Global Sugar Situation:
- On November 21, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) revised its global sugar deficit forecast for 2024/25 down to 2.51 million metric tons (MMT), from an earlier estimate of 3.58 MMT. This is a shift from a surplus of 1.31 MMT in 2023/24. According to these figures, global sugar availability in the 2024/25 season is expected to be lower than consumption.
India:
- The Indian government has allowed sugar mills to produce ethanol in the 2024/25 season, which could prolong the country’s sugar export restrictions.
- The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has projected a 2% decline in sugar production for 2024/25.
- According to ISMA, out of the total 33.31 million tons of sugar production, 2.03 million tons will be consumed for ethanol, leaving 31.96 million tons available for the domestic market and potential export.
- Due to reduced domestic demand and the start of new sugar production, there has been a drop in sugar prices.
Thailand:
- Thailand is expected to see an 18% increase in sugar production for the 2024/25 season, with production estimated to reach 10.35 million metric tons.
- In the 2023/24 season, production was limited to 8.77 million metric tons due to drought conditions.
Brazil:
- Sugar production in Brazil’s Center-South region has recently declined. From November 1-15, 2024, production fell by 59.2% year-on-year to just 898 thousand metric tons.
- For the 2024/25 season, total sugar production in the Center-South region is expected to decrease by 3%, reaching 38.274 million metric tons.
- Drought, excessive heat, and fires in São Paulo state have affected up to 80,000 hectares of sugarcane, with an estimated loss of 5 million metric tons of sugarcane production.
- Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency, CONAB, has lowered its 2024/25 sugar production estimate to 44 million metric tons from the previous forecast of 46 million metric tons.
Summary:
The global sugar market is expected to face a deficit in the 2024/25 season due to lower sugar availability than consumption. In India, sugar production is expected to decline slightly, with government policies likely to prolong export restrictions. In Thailand and Brazil, production is also impacted by various factors—Thailand anticipates a significant increase in production, while Brazil is struggling with weather-related issues, leading to lower output. These factors will affect global sugar prices and trade dynamics.