Global Rice Prices Expected to Rise Amid Low Exportable Stocks in Supplier Countries

30-Apr-2025 05:38 PM

Hyderabad. Global rice prices are likely to see an upward trend as exportable stocks in key supplier countries like Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Myanmar have significantly declined. India, with its ample rice reserves and competitive export pricing, stands to benefit from this emerging opportunity.

Industry analysts note that although Myanmar currently offers rice at slightly lower prices, its limited stock is unlikely to affect India’s position in the global market.

Meanwhile, Indian rice exports are well-positioned to increase over the next few months, especially before the arrival of new paddy-rice crops in other exporting countries.

In a move that may impact domestic availability and pricing, the Chhattisgarh government has announced it will release 35 lakh tonnes of rice into the open market through two tenders. This step is expected to improve supply in the domestic sector, possibly exerting downward pressure on local prices.

Exporters are optimistic that India’s rice shipments will accelerate from May, with peak volumes expected in June and July, fueled by strong demand from major importing countries.

China and the Philippines are projected to import 50 lakh tonnes and 45 lakh tonnes of rice, respectively, keeping exporters in Thailand, Vietnam, and Myanmar actively engaged in those markets. This gives India a strategic opening to expand its footprint in other parts of Asia and Africa.

The export offer prices of India’s non-basmati white and sela rice varieties remain attractive, and experts believe that even a modest price increase would not dampen international demand.

As global prices firm up in Thailand and Vietnam, Indian exporters may be able to raise their own prices while maintaining competitive appeal.

With all these factors in play, India's leadership in the global rice export market is expected to continue for at least the next three to four months.