Global Sugar Market Situation
09-Jul-2025 01:20 PM
Global Sugar Market Situation
India
★ The monsoon arrived early in India this year, with June receiving 9% above-normal rainfall.
★ July is also expected to see above-normal rainfall, boosting the outlook for sugar production.
★ According to the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories, India’s sugar production in 2025–26 may rise by 19% to 35 million tonnes.
★ Some other agencies have projected a 25% increase, estimating production at 35.3 million tonnes.
★ In January 2024, the government allowed sugar mills to export 1 million tonnes, out of which only 800,000 tonnes are expected to be exported.
★ According to ISMA, India’s sugar production in 2024–25 may decline by 17.5% to 26.2 million tonnes — the lowest in five years.
★ From October 1 to May 15, production reached 25.74 million tonnes.
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Thailand
★ Sugar production in 2024–25 increased by 14% to 10 million tonnes.
★ In 2025–26, production is expected to grow by another 2% to 10.3 million tonnes.
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Brazil
★ In the ongoing 2025–26 season (starting April 1), sugar production is down by 14.6% so far, totaling 9.4 million tonnes.
★ Due to drought and excessive heat, Brazil’s 2024–25 sugar production is expected to fall by 3.4% to 44.1 million tonnes.
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International Sugar Organization (ISO)
★ ISO has projected a global sugar deficit of 5.47 million tonnes for 2024–25, the highest in nine years.
★ The production drop in Brazil and the global deficit forecast may offer some support to prices.
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Global Market
★ Increased global sugar production and stocks have led to a sharp decline in sugar prices over the past three months.
★ A global surplus stock of 7.5 million tonnes is projected for 2025–26, the highest in eight years.
★ According to the USDA, global sugar production in 2025–26 is expected to rise by 4.7% to a record 189.3 million tonnes.
★ Global sugar consumption is estimated to grow by 1.4% to 177.9 million tonnes, and ending stocks are forecast to rise by 7.5% to 41.2 million tonnes.
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★ While short-term production cuts in Brazil and ISO’s projected deficit may lend support to prices, the overall global outlook remains bearish due to higher production in India and Thailand and record stock levels.