Global Wheat Prices Likely to Stay Subdued
04-Oct-2025 12:58 PM
New Delhi. Wheat prices in India have stabilized within a certain range with limited fluctuations, and a significant increase in prices appears unlikely in the near future.
A similar trend is being observed in the global market, where prices remain under pressure and a bearish outlook is likely to persist.
Wheat exports from Russia have begun to accelerate. The United States, Canada, and the European Union are experiencing robust arrivals of new wheat, while preparations for harvesting the new crop have begun in Australia. Wheat harvest will also begin soon in Argentina. The wheat sowing season has officially begun in India.
Improved production in various supplier countries has led to a large exportable stock of wheat, while importing countries are showing no urgency in purchasing it.
Supplier countries are likely to face intense competition in the global export market in the near future, and may have to adopt aggressive policies to sell wheat.
Global wheat production is projected to reach a new record high of over 815 million tons during the current 2025-26 marketing season.
This is expected to reflect increased production in all major exporting countries—Russia, the United States, Canada, Australia, the European Union, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.
Wheat futures prices remain under pressure on major exchanges, including Chicago and Paris. Investors have significant net short positions, but the pace of selling is slowing.
A leading rating agency had previously projected an average global wheat market price of $5.69 per bushel for 2025, but has now lowered this estimate to $5.46 per ton. Further reductions are possible.
Meanwhile, in India, the government has sufficient wheat stocks, and domestic market prices remain relatively stable.
Farmers remain enthusiastic about wheat cultivation. However, in the most important producing state- Uttar Pradesh, the target of wheat sowing has been reduced to 5.19 lakh hectares, which is less than last year's area of 102.65 lakh hectares.