Global Wheat Supply Estimate Cut Due to Lower Beginning Stocks

14-Jul-2025 12:10 PM

New Delhi: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its global wheat supply estimate for the 2025–26 season by 4 lakh tonnes, now projecting it at 1,070 lakh tonnes. This downward revision is attributed to lower beginning stocks and a slight reduction in production. According to USDA’s July report, wheat output is expected to decline in Canada, Ukraine, and Iran, while increases are anticipated from Kazakhstan, the European Union, Russia, and Pakistan.

Compared to the June report, the July forecast highlights a decrease in global wheat supply, trade, and ending stocks for the 2025–26 season, along with a rise in consumption and demand. Global wheat consumption is projected to increase by 8 lakh tonnes to reach 8,106 lakh tonnes. This growth is primarily driven by increased wheat use in seed production in countries such as Kazakhstan and Thailand.

On the other hand, global wheat trade is estimated to drop by 13 lakh tonnes, now pegged at 2,131 lakh tonnes. This is due to expected declines in wheat exports from the EU and Ukraine, although shipments from Russia and the U.S. are likely to rise.

The USDA report further estimates that global ending stocks of wheat at the close of the 2025–26 marketing season will fall to 2,615 lakh tonnes, which is 12 lakh tonnes lower than the June forecast. Notably, stock estimates for Canada and the EU have been revised downward.

As for India, the USDA has maintained its wheat production estimate at 1,175 lakh tonnes. However, domestic consumption is expected to rise by 5 lakh tonnes, reaching 1,070 lakh tonnes. It's important to note that India has maintained a ban on wheat exports since 2022 and continues to impose a 40% import duty, effectively limiting its role in the global wheat market.