Global Wheat Supply Estimate Increased

13-Jan-2026 08:25 PM

Washington. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased its estimate for global wheat supply and availability for the current 2025-26 marketing season by 4.3 million tons, now setting it at 1.1 billion tons,

including production and ending stocks. In its new monthly report, the USDA increased its wheat production estimates for Russia and Argentina, while projecting a decrease in production in Turkey.

The USDA increased its estimate for wheat production in Argentina by 3.5 million tons, setting it at a new record level of 27.5 million tons, which is about 50 percent higher than the 2024-25 season.

Similarly, wheat production in Russia was also increased by 2 million tons to 90 million tons. The production estimates in both countries were increased based on improvements in average crop yields. As a result, Russia will remain the third-largest wheat producer after China and India.

Similar to production, the USDA also increased its estimate for global wheat utilization for the 2025-26 season by 900,000 tons, now setting it at 823.4 million tons.

This includes projected increases in wheat consumption, particularly in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco. Global wheat trade is projected to reach 219.8 million tons, 1.1 million tons higher than the previous estimate.

This includes projected increases in wheat exports from Argentina and Kazakhstan, and decreases in shipments from the European Union and Ukraine.

After accounting for the supply and demand balance, the USDA projected global ending stocks of wheat at the end of the current 2025-26 marketing season to be 278.3 million tons, 3.4 million tons higher than the estimate from the previous month.

For the 2025-26 season, while estimating India's wheat production at 1179.50 lakh tonnes, the USDA has maintained its estimate for domestic consumption at the previous level of 1125.10 lakh tonnes and has also kept its estimate for ending stocks unchanged at 172.40 lakh tonnes.