India to benefit from a decline in Thai rice exports

31-Dec-2025 05:11 PM

Hyderabad. The Thai Ministry of Commerce and rice exporters' associations have projected a decline of slightly more than 10 percent in rice exports during 2026 compared to 2025. 

Thailand is expected to export approximately 7.9-8 million tonnes of rice in 2025, which could fall to around 7 million tonnes in 2026. Although Thailand is traditionally considered the world's second-largest rice exporter after India, if its total shipments fall to around 7 million tonnes in 2026, Vietnam, currently in third place, could overtake it to become the second-largest exporter.

As far as India is concerned, its position will remain unchanged, and it will retain its number one position with a significant lead over Thailand and Vietnam. However, it may get further opportunities to increase its rice exports.

India has a huge exportable surplus of rice due to record production, and the Indian rupee's exchange rate remains attractive for importers. In comparison, the Thai baht is seen as 10-20 percent stronger.

Thailand has high hopes from China. A government-to-government agreement for the import and export of 500,000 tonnes of rice between the two countries is likely.

Thai rice exporters are also focusing on other countries, including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Germany, Switzerland, the USA, and Singapore.

In African countries, Thailand and Vietnam will face extremely tough competition from India, as cheaper Indian rice has already established a strong foothold in these markets.