Indonesian Palm Oil Prices Likely to Fall Next Season
25-Sep-2025 08:41 PM
Mumbai. The average price of Indonesian palm oil is expected to fall to between $950-$1000 per tonne in the November-October marketing season, while it has remained above $1000 per tonne so far in the current 2024-25 marketing season.
According to the Palm Oil Association of Indonesia, the world's leading palm oil producer and exporter, domestic palm oil production is expected to increase significantly during the upcoming season. Lower prices and reduced customs duties are expected to increase India's palm oil imports from Indonesia.
It is noteworthy that Indonesia alone accounts for more than 50 percent of India's total palm oil imports, while Indonesian palm oil accounts for approximately 25 percent of India's total edible oil imports.
India's gross palm oil imports from Indonesia increased to 3.1 million tonnes during the first 10 months of the 2024-25 marketing season, from November 2024 to August 2025. Data for September-October is still pending.
Currently, the export offer price for palm oil in Indonesia is around $1042 per tonne. During the 2024-25 marketing season, the global market price of palm oil remained slightly higher than other edible oils, but with favorable weather and rainfall conditions expected in Southeast Asia, production may moderate in the coming months.
The Chairman of the Indonesia Palm Oil Association (Gapki) states that domestic palm oil production is expected to increase in 2025 compared to 2024.
The Indonesian government has taken precautionary measures to replant palm trees, which will help increase production.
According to the Chairman, Indonesia produced 53 million tons of palm oil in 2024, while it is expected to increase by 1 million tons to 54 million tons in 2025. Under this, the production of crude palm oil (CPO) is estimated to be around 50 million tons and the production of crude palm kernel oil is estimated to be around 4 million tons.
Other associations and organizations have expressed the possibility of palm oil production in Indonesia between 47 million and 53 million tons during the 2024-25 season.