According to EIA data released this morning, ethanol production in the week ending January 2 declined by 22,000 barrels per day week-on-week to 1.098 million barrels per day. Despite the drop in production, ethanol stocks rose by 708,000 barrels to 22.652 million barrels. This was mainly due to a decline in exports, which fell by 35,000 barrels per day to 113,000 barrels per day. However, a bigger impact came from lower refiner ethanol inputs, which dropped by 117,000 barrels per day to 771,000 barrels per day. Such a seasonal slowdown is considered normal after the holiday period.

Export Sales data will be released on Thursday. Traders are expecting corn sales of 0.7 to 1.5 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season during the week ending January 1, while sales for the 2026/27 season are estimated between 0 and 100,000 metric tons.

USDA will release several key reports on Monday. The Crop Production report is expected to show US corn production at 16.553 billion bushels, with average yield estimated at 184 bushels per acre, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts.