International Oilseeds Market
16-Nov-2024 08:32 AM
International Oilseeds Market
The international oilseeds market is seeing some significant movements, with key developments in both the soybeans and soybean meal sectors. Here's a breakdown of the updates:
US Soybean Exports:
The US has secured 176,000 tonnes (1.76 lakh tonnes) of soybean export deals to an undisclosed destination. This indicates ongoing international demand for US soybeans, but the unknown destination adds an element of uncertainty.
Export Projections for 2024-25 and 2025-26:
The total soybean export forecast for the 2024-25 season is between 1 to 2.2 million tonnes (10-22 lakh tonnes), with a lower estimate of 100,000 tonnes (1 lakh tonnes) for the 2025-26 season.
Soybean meal exports are projected to be between 170,000 tonnes and 540,000 tonnes (1.7-5.4 lakh tonnes), which will likely be influenced by global demand and the availability of other meal sources.
Brazil’s Soybean Production Forecast:
The National Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (CONABA) has revised Brazil’s soybean production forecast for the current year to 166.14 million tonnes (1661.4 lakh tonnes). This marks a notable increase, reflecting the potential for a larger crop than initially expected, which may impact global supply and competition with US exports.
US Soybean Crushing in October:
The US crushed a record 196.84 million bushels of soybeans in October 2024, the highest monthly crush on record. This high crushing volume has contributed to an increase in soybean oil stocks, which reached a total of 1.09 billion pounds by October 31. The higher crush rates suggest a robust domestic demand for both soybean meal and oil, likely driven by the growing need for biofuels and food industry usage.
Market Implications:
US Soybean Exports: The undisclosed export deal could suggest a private deal or non-traditional market destination, potentially influencing soybean prices if further details emerge.
Brazil’s Growing Supply: With Brazil’s increased production forecast, competition in the global soybean market could intensify, especially in Asia, which is a major buyer of soybeans for both direct consumption and oil extraction.
Record Crushing in the US: High crushing levels may push up soybean meal availability for the animal feed market, but it also suggests that soybean oil stocks could increase, which may lead to volatility in oil prices, especially with biofuel mandates influencing demand.
The soybean market is clearly in a state of flux, influenced by strong domestic activity in the US, rising supply from Brazil, and fluctuating export prospects. These factors will be crucial to monitor in the coming months.
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अंतर्राष्ट्रीय तेल तिलहन बाजार
★ अमरीका ने कल अज्ञात जगह 1.76 लाख टन सोया निर्यात सौदे किये।
★ 2024-25 सीजन का कुल निर्यात 10-22 लाख टन व 2025-26 का 1 लाख टन तथा सोयामील का 1.7-5.4 लाख टन होने का अनुमान।
★ कोनाबा ने ब्राजील में सोया का उत्पादन अनुमान बढ़ाकर 1661.4 लाख टन दिया।
★ मोपा के अनुसार अमरीका में अक्टूबर में 196.84 मिलियन बुशेल सोया की क्रशिंग की गयी जो अब तक की सबसे अधिक क्रशिंग बोली जा सकती है। क्रशिंग अधिक होने से 31 अक्टूबर तक 1.09 बिलियन पौंड सोया तेल का स्टॉक पहुंचा।