According to USDA Crop Progress data, 53% of the US winter wheat crop had been harvested as of July 6, matching the average. Crop conditions held steady at 48% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index up 2 points to 331.

The spring wheat crop was 61% headed, slightly ahead of the 58% average, though condition ratings fell by 3% to 48% good/excellent. The Brugler500 index dropped by 8 points to 337.

Export Inspections showed wheat shipments at 436,628 MT (16.04 million bushels) during the week ending July 3, down 8.38% from the previous week but 27.16% higher than the same week last year. Mexico received 71,753 MT and Brazil 63,265 MT.

Since June 1, cumulative marketing year wheat exports total 1.758 MMT (64.6 million bushels), 1.5% higher year over year.

As part of US trade negotiations, Indonesia’s flour mills signed an MOU to purchase 1 MMT of US wheat annually from 2026 to 2030, along with 800,000 MT for the remainder of 2025. Last year, Indonesia imported 838,770 MT of US wheat, including 286,082 MT in 2023. Later in the day, President Trump announced a 32% tariff on Indonesian goods starting August 1, and 25% tariffs on goods from South Korea and Japan.

A delayed CFTC report showed that as of July 1, managed funds reduced their net short position in Chicago wheat futures by 1,596 contracts to 63,071 contracts. In Kansas City wheat, the net short position was cut by 1,114 contracts to 42,348.

FranceAgriMer estimates that 67% of the French wheat crop is in good/excellent condition, with 11% already harvested. Meanwhile, Russia has lowered its wheat export tax to 0%, reverting to 2021 levels when the tax was first introduced.