International Wheat Market Update

07-Dec-2024 08:19 AM

International Wheat Market Update
For the week ending December 3, speculative traders expanded their net short positions in wheat futures:

CBT wheat: Increased by 10,268 contracts, bringing the total to 69,386 contracts, the largest since August.
KC wheat: Grew by 7,769 contracts, reaching 38,430 contracts.
These shifts indicate growing bearish sentiment among traders in the wheat market.

Export Sales Data
The weekly export sales report highlights significant growth in wheat exports:

Shipments: Total 10.844 million metric tons (MMT) so far in the marketing year (MY), a 33% increase year-on-year.
This is 48% of USDA’s full-year projection, trailing the 50% average pace.
Total commitments: Stand at 15.698 MMT, up 20% year-on-year, equating to 70% of USDA’s estimate but below the 73% average pace.
French Soft Wheat Crop Status

Planting progress: 96% completed, compared to 93% last week and 87% in the same week last year.
Condition: 86% rated good or excellent, a slight decline from 87% last week, but significantly improved from 77% last year.
Ukraine and Russia Wheat Production

Ukraine: The 2025 wheat crop is projected to rise by 1.3 MMT to 23.7 MMT, according to Argus Media.
Russia: Wheat output is forecast at 81.5 MMT, up 0.2 MMT year-on-year.
Export Tariffs: Starting December 11, Russia will raise its wheat export tariff to $48.57/MT, a 32% increase from the previous week.
Summary
The wheat market shows mixed signals with strong export growth but lagging commitments relative to average paces. Speculative traders are increasingly bearish, likely reacting to high global stocks and price pressures from major producers like Russia and Ukraine. Updates on planting progress and export dynamics in key regions will shape market trends in the coming weeks.