★ Despite a decline in acreage, India’s cotton production in the 2025-26 crop year (starting October) is expected to be higher than last year. In Gujarat and Maharashtra, some farmers have shifted to more remunerative crops such as groundnut and maize, resulting in about a 3% drop in cotton sowing. Last year, cotton was sown on 110 lakh hectares, while this year it is around 107 lakh hectares.

★ Timely monsoon and early sowing are expected to boost yields by about 10%. Total production is projected at 325–330 lakh bales (of 170 kg each). From South India (Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Odisha), output is estimated at around 1 crore bales — a record compared to last year’s 87 lakh bales. Sowing has increased in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, while Telangana has seen a 5% rise in acreage.

★ In Central India, cotton sowing is down by 10% in Gujarat and 3–4% in Maharashtra. In North India, crop conditions are good, and output is expected to rise from 28.5 lakh bales last season to 38 lakh bales in the upcoming season.

★ Timely rains and early sowing will support higher yields, and market arrivals are likely to begin earlier than usual. Overall production is projected at around 330 lakh bales (±5%). Weather conditions during harvesting will be crucial. In Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, favorable weather has helped reduce the impact of pink bollworm and whitefly infestations.